India Japan China Relations

China is most important for India, Japan

The deepening relationship between India and Japan is driven by a combination of economic and strategic considerations. Japan, with its large but stagnating economy, is keen on the rapidly growing Indian economy. India, too, is interested in boosting trade with Japan and attracting investment. The recently concluded Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement sets the stage for closer economic relations. At the strategic level, New Delhi and Tokyo are concerned about China’s swagger and assertiveness on a range of bilateral and regional issues. For India, closer ties with Japan are not only important in their own terms but also provide strategic pay-offs with respect to China. At a minimum, it will indicate to China that India has an important role in the emerging Asian security landscape. This, in turn, will strengthen India’s hand in dealing with China on bilateral matters. Nevertheless, India should not overestimate the importance of that aspect. Nor should we underestimate the negative fallouts. Managing ties with China is the most important challenge for Indian foreign policy. While there are major outstanding disputes, there are important areas of cooperation —such as climate change. China is India’s largest trading partner. New Delhi is concerned about trade imbalances, but let us not forget that the volume of trade with China is nearly six times that of Japan. From a strategic standpoint, it would be unwise to convey an impression to China that our relationship with Japan is primarily directed against it. We have to cope with the rise of China without stoking its insecurity. Japan too has much at stake with China. Japan’s trade with China in 2009-10 was $232 billion compared with $10.3 billion with India. Tokyo also seeks Beijing’s cooperation in dealing with key security challenges in East Asia. For both India and Japan, then, their relationships with China will remain more important than their own bilateral ties.

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Indo-Japanese ties can keep China in check

For both India and Japan, China is a challenge as well as an opportunity. Challenge because China’s assertive posture does not augur well for peace and stability in Asia. China’s exclusive claim over the whole of the south China Sea and territorial disputes over Senkaku/Diaoyu islands makes the security environment in the East Asian region fragile. China’s military modernisation and enhancement of power projection capability cause considerable disquiet in that part of the world. Similarly, Chinese stance over Arunachal Pradesh, Tibet and the Dalai Lama issue are irritants in India-China relations. The issue of stapled visas and denial of visa to a senior army official do not please India as well. China’s port development ventures in Sri Lanka (Hambantota) and Gawadar (Pakistan) with the suspected objective of increasing its naval presence raise uncomfortable questions in India. Both India and Japan as well as other nations in Asia would certainly rejoice if China’s economic rise is peaceful. There is no guarantee, however, that this is the case. Such an environment propels both India and Japan to share commonality of interests. Engaging China, rather than infuriating it by designing a strategy of containment, would be in the larger interests of securing peace and stability in Asia. The opportunity is clearly demonstrated in the burgeoning ties in the economic realm. Despite tensions between India and China, and Japan and China, their bilateral economic relations have been flourishing. Japan cannot afford to derail the process of deepening economic ties with China. Similarly, the irritants between India and China in the political domain have not deterred strengthening of economic ties between the two. Both India and Japan have a huge stake in the Chinese market and they cannot afford to undo this advantage. For India, Japan as a partner in development vis-à-vis China, would serve a twin purpose: to help engage China, and also keep China under check.