Arab uprising in India’s interest?

Only if democratic regimes take over
THE answer to the question whether the ‘revolution’ in the Arab world is in India’s interest will depend on who would take charge after the overthrow of these regimes. So far, the agitating masses in Egypt are united only in demanding the ouster of Hosni Mubarak. This fragile unity could easily break in the chaotic situation, even after his removal.
What happens here is crucial to India’s interest. Egypt is an Indiafriendly country. Bollywood films are popular there and Amitabh Bachchan is a household name in Cairo. Seen more as a US stooge, Mubarak has been no friend of India. And till recently, India did not figure much in his foreign policy agenda.
But the fact remains that he did keep fundamentalist forces like the Muslim brotherhood under control. This could change if they manage to come to the fore. The uprising, coming as it does close on the heels of the Tunisian Jasmine revolution, might have been a spontaneous outburst of public anger against corruption and misrule, but it could not have been sustained for so long and gain momentum without some planning and support. If the transition is chaotic and violent, there is every possibility that the extremist religious elements would take centre-stage.
No doubt, if truly democratically-elected liberal regimes take their place, they would certainly be in India’s interest. But if the Islamic forces succeed — like a repeat of the Iranian revolution — it could be a potentially dangerous situation. Such disturbing developments could impact not only our external relations with the Arab countries where we have vital interests but also our internal situation.
It would be pertinent to recall that the strengthening of the separatist forces and terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir took place during the mass upsurge in Iran. The situation in Jammu and Kashmir could sharply deteriorate again if the jihadi groups, aided and abetted by Pakistan, get inspiration and support from the so-called revolution in the Arab world. There is no scope for romanticising the situation. India needs to be hard-headed to look after its own national interest.

Will have little direct impact here
INDIA was not born in a revolution. In 1947, the old guard was not taken off in tumbrels to make way for the new. Instead, it was an orderly transfer of power from one authority to its successor, even while the country was wracked with utter mayhem and disorder. The main institutions of governance survived the transition virtually unaltered, with the all-important addition of a fullyfunctional Parliament. India’s instinctive predisposition for orderly and harmonious transition was demonstrated in those trying times, and also its inclination to recoil from abrupt and violent transformation.
But there is another, no less compelling Indian propensity, which is the love of freedom as a basic value. Indians are free people, they make their own choices about how they should be organised and who should rule them, and they will not have it otherwise. They can only rejoice when others choose to do the same, so their sympathies are closely engaged with the struggle of the mass of Arabs who have come out in defiance of seemingly immovable rulers in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and other parts of West Asia.
Indeed, only the remarkably dull would fail to catch the thrill and exhilaration of the current moment as ordinary people leave the security of their homes and workplaces to cast defiance at those who have exercised authority over them for so long. The sympathy of Indians will certainly be with those demanding a better deal.
It is worth remembering that these events will have little direct impact on India. The major consequences will be in the Arab world itself, where the demonstrations have served to regenerate trampled national pride, and have strengthened the universal cause of freedom and democracy. India’s interest in this drama is not to be measured in petty accounts of profit and loss but, above all, in affirming the values we share with those who have come out to demonstrate.
The inspiring example they have given the world must be acknowledged. We must wish for them a peaceful and orderly transition to the new order. And we must reach out to them in friendship.